The September quarter was a case of back to the future for weary investors. The US S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq all suffered their worst quarter performance since the same period last year. In Australia, the ASX 200 has returned to its March lows.
Let us examine what happens when the clear and present danger from the coronavirus meets the global asset bubble, your portfolio and the industry standard investment approach. This is no small issue because – contrary to a market consensus – the coronavirus (COVID-19) is actually a real threat to complacent equity markets and client portfolios. It is a global health pandemic which requires active management in the real world, and which should also be risk managed by your adviser or super fund. The coronavirus and its real-world management should not simply be dismissed as just another flu, and could even be the catalyst which bursts the global asset bubble.
Most strategies in the market are too ‘cookie cutter’ and are not resilient enough to survive a downturn or an end of an investment cycle. What’s more, these strategies do not seem to adequately compensate the investor for the actual risk being taken. Are we really doing our best interest duty with the investment strategies that we are dispensing?
Looking at the current state of things, we have observed three investment ‘wrongs’ many financial planners are guilty of:
Many portfolios traditionally use government bonds and cash to be defensive. With bond rates and cash rates now at historic lows, there is no longer much yield or return that one can expect from a long-term investment in these. Furthermore, the likelihood of losing money over time in real terms is now higher, given it now requires little inflation to overcome the mediocre expected return from historically low yields. Unfortunately, such a situation reflects lacklustre economies and is the end result of market returns being pulled forward by government intervention. Traditional defensive investments have simply become a tool of government policy as governments attempt to prolong an ‘artificial’ economic expansion.
Goals Based Investing (GBI) continues to gain recognition and be better understood amongst advisers. In his article Goals Based Investing: Should it be the norm? Giuseppe Ballocchi describes GBI as the way of the future for financial advice. Are we finally seeing a shift from the more traditional Strategic Asset Allocation approach to GBI? The simple answer is yes. Why, because it makes sense. Client goals should determine investment decisions. And, there is a rising school of thought that SAA investing will not suit likely market conditions going forward.
By now, the situation is clear. Many economies are gradually slowing down or have already entered a recession (think European powerhouse “Germany”). A recession affecting even the ‘greatest’ economy of them all is probably right in front of us. As a result, how investors position their portfolios this coming quarter and in 2020 may be all that matters.
Investors are more knowledgeable about the market and their portfolios than ever before. They can see that not all is right in the world and there is an air of fear and doubt sweeping through many financial conversations.
Jerome Lander is the Portfolio Manager at Dynamic Asset and one of Australia's leaders in the Goals Based Investing landscape.
Nearly 20 years after the last technology bubble, we’re in funny season again, and you don’t need to be an economics PhD to see it. Crazy valuations are being ascribed to stocks that have never made a dollar, in the hope they’ll become like Amazon one day. Think loss making stocks being priced on huge multiples of revenue implying that strong growth will continue for many many years in an otherwise low growth market. There is indeed a growing growth bubble in the ‘bubble in everything’.
The market environment has changed. Yet most advisers’ portfolios have not. They may want to adapt fast if they want their clients better suited to the new market environment - assuming they’re not going to unduly suffer more weak returns going forward as they did in 2018.
