It’s becoming increasingly apparent that it’s a dangerous time in markets for investors. Governments and Central Banks around the world have reacted by pumping in immense amounts of stimulus to maintain price stability. But the more astute observers recognise this is a band-aid, not a permanent solution, and that traditional Risk Profile or SAA portfolios are not designed to navigate, or even survive, the future.
Strategic asset allocation, the hallmark investment approach of financial advisory firms who use risk profiling to determine a client’s investment portfolios, is under the spotlight, with an increasing number of investment firms questioning whether the strategy remains appropriate in light of the seismic shift seen in financial markets over the past decade.
There has rarely been a more urgent time to assess whether your money is being optimally managed. Market valuations are close to all-time highs while risk levels are high and long-term real return prospects are near zero. We anticipate re-runs of 2020 over the coming years, with more volatility and markets that ultimately go nowhere.
Developing client-centric advice models has been a hot topic for many financial planning firms in recent years, with the duty of acting in the client’s best interest further cemented by the newly established Financial Adviser Standards and Ethics Authority's Code of Ethics. This has led some advisors to question whether the conventional weighting of a portfolio across today’s increasingly volatile and highly correlated asset classes satisfies this duty of care.
Part 1 of this article examines why advisors are increasingly moving to outsource the investment function of their financial planning business when implementing a goals based investing approach. The next step is to consider a suitable investment and administrative structure that will support the advisor in delivering the key objective of goals based investing; tailoring each client’s portfolio to ensure it meets their unique objectives.
The ASX200 fell roughly 10% in the financial year just finished, which included a terrifying 35% plunge and euphoric 30% rally in a 16-week period. This loss-making white-knuckle ride is not what investors seek, and has left many on the sidelines feeling cautious and confused.
During market downturns, investors are commonly advised to stick with their strategic asset allocation rather than crystalise their losses in the hope that the downturn will be short lived and that returns will revert to historical norms.
Let us examine what happens when the clear and present danger from the coronavirus meets the global asset bubble, your portfolio and the industry standard investment approach. This is no small issue because – contrary to a market consensus – the coronavirus (COVID-19) is actually a real threat to complacent equity markets and client portfolios. It is a global health pandemic which requires active management in the real world, and which should also be risk managed by your adviser or super fund. The coronavirus and its real-world management should not simply be dismissed as just another flu, and could even be the catalyst which bursts the global asset bubble.
Many portfolios traditionally use government bonds and cash to be defensive. With bond rates and cash rates now at historic lows, there is no longer much yield or return that one can expect from a long-term investment in these. Furthermore, the likelihood of losing money over time in real terms is now higher, given it now requires little inflation to overcome the mediocre expected return from historically low yields. Unfortunately, such a situation reflects lacklustre economies and is the end result of market returns being pulled forward by government intervention. Traditional defensive investments have simply become a tool of government policy as governments attempt to prolong an ‘artificial’ economic expansion.
By now, the situation is clear. Many economies are gradually slowing down or have already entered a recession (think European powerhouse “Germany”). A recession affecting even the ‘greatest’ economy of them all is probably right in front of us. As a result, how investors position their portfolios this coming quarter and in 2020 may be all that matters.
